By SAUNDRA YOUNG
Will the two Covid-19 variants _ Delta and Omicron_ threaten to upend everything and leave the forecast going into 2022 somewhat up in the air? When it comes to the Omicron variant, the White House and federal health officials are saying, be concerned, but don’t panic.
The CDC says the Delta strain is responsible for more than 99 percent of all cases. But Omicron, a variant that may spread more easily than other variants, is picking up speed in the United States just in time for Christmas, with cases now found in at least 19 states.
Marcella Nunez-Smith, MD, the Presidential COVID-19 Health Equity Task Force Chair, says the Task Force issued its final report and recommendations in November. A total of 55 final recommendations and several top line priorities were laid out. She says they are already moving on about 80 percent of those recommendations.
Nunez-Smith, associate dean for Health Equity Research at Yale University and senior advisor to the White House COVID-19 Response Team says she is resisting the urge to “look into that proverbial crystal ball” but is optimistic about 2022 and encouraged by what she sees.
“We have tools that we just did not have at the beginning of the pandemic. Then even once we got them, they weren’t widely available the way they are now, vaccines being the most important among them.” She added that “both the level of efficacy in the clinical trials and effectiveness in the real world, meaning how well they work at keeping people out of the hospital and alive have been reassuringly high and knowing that boosters give people an extra immune response capability – this is so important.”
“And then we see the range of therapies and the kind of therapies are really expanding with more therapies coming on board. I will always say therapy is not a substitute for a vaccination, but goodness, it’s good to have those things in the toolbox too, just as testing becomes more and more available.”
“We know how to be,” she continued. “Let’s go back to basics, masks. And masks work. Avoiding large crowds and being socially distant when it’s appropriate with those outside our household and outside our pods. That is a list that we didn’t have going into the beginning of this, so even going into 2022, as I know there are questions and answers emerging about Omicron and other variants, we know what to do to stay safe in the face of SAR-CoV-2 and the face of COVID19 and that makes me really optimistic.”
Vice Admiral Vivek Murthy, MD, Surgeon General of the United States weighed in on what we need to do to protect ourselves.
It’s important to remember that since 2020, we have made extraordinary strides in the fight against COVID, including access to a wide array of tools: masks, testing, vaccines for all Americans ages 5 and up, and now, booster shots for all adults. While we do not have a crystal ball we are equipped with these tools and there is reason to feel hopeful about what lies ahead of us. Especially as we continue to take these precautions heading into the winter months.”
The forecast could be a bit tricky without all the pieces of the puzzle, said Georges Benjamin, MD, executive director of the American Public Health Association (APHA). Still, he had this prediction:
“The pandemic trajectory is tied to the level of vaccination including boosters in the nation. So, the most likely scenario is that we should continue to have COVID-19 outbreaks in the US at some level through 2022 with episodic outbreaks at diminishing levels over the year. This assumes people continue to get vaccinated and those that are fully vaccinated today get boosted. It also assumes we are more successful in getting the rest of the world vaccinated at a faster pace AND we don’t get a new variant that substantially escapes the vaccine and is more severe medically. Expect another Xmas / New Year’s surge. Best that can be assumed without a crystal ball.”
Nunez-Smith says the Administration is watching Omicron very, very closely. “I want to reassure everyone that this is still SARS-CoV-2. That is the virus that causes COVID19, this isn’t something that has morphed into something unrecognizable to us. This is a variant – so we will pay attention to this, but it transmits the same way. There is evidence that it can be highly transmissible but the mode of transmission is the same way we’ve always known.
Benjamin says it’s too early to tell if Omicron is a game-changer going into the new year. “The impact of Omicron depends on its infectivity AND its lethality. We should have a better idea in about three weeks. Also, if we get a higher percentage of people vaccinated and boosted, we should undermine the ability of Omicron to get a meaningful foothold in the US. By the way, it could easily end up being no big deal as have other variants that we were initially concerned about.”
“I understand Americans are feeling worried and exhausted with this virus, especially with news of the Omicron variant.” the Surgeon General said. “It’s crucial that we remember we’re in a much better place as a country today than we were in 2020. We have the tools to protect ourselves and our families, keep our kids in school, and gather more safely for birthdays and holidays. The best way to prepare for COVID in 2022 is to use these tools: wearing high-quality masks, getting vaccinated, getting boosted if you’re eligible and using rapid testing as a strategy for
gatherings.
Camille Jones, MD, MPH, Assistant Health Commissioner (Retired) Cincinnati Health Department predicts “three to four surges of new COVID diagnoses nationally in 2022. The current surge that started in mid-November 2021 will probably run through February 2022, driven mostly by the Delta variant. Omicron will start spreading extensively in the US, with Omicron driven surges March-May, it will decrease by June, but then another resurgence like we had this year from mid-July – September. If the vaccines hold against Omicron, new COVID diagnoses may start decreasing during fall until another seasonal November-December surge.”
“ But if Omicron is able to evade vaccine neutralizing antibodies, we will have higher surges with more disruption of the medical care system, similar to 2020 before vaccines were available. We will also see other variants arise, and either compete successfully with Delta and Omicron, or not be able to get a foothold in the population.”
The CDC says breakthrough infections in those who are vaccinated are expected but says vaccines are still effective at preventing severe illness, hospitalizations, and death. They’re urging every eligible American to get vaccinated.
“We are going to have to learn to live with this disease around just like we learned to live with Influenza which is also a vaccine preventable respiratory disease. It is too early to know if we will need periodic (annual) boosters, but additional ones are possibly in our future. Also, mask wearing in appropriate settings will continue as well as hand hygiene and some degree of social distancing / closures when outbreaks occur,” Georges said. “I am still very worried about disparities especially with boosters. We need to ensure that we have equal access and utilization of boosters otherwise we will see the health complications from COVID in communities of color worsen. So, 2022 is not the time to let our guard down or to fall for the misinformation which is still high prevalent in our communities.”
“I am still very worried about disparities especially with boosters. We need to ensure that we have equal access and utilization of boosters otherwise we will see the health complications from COVID in communities of color worsen. So, 2022 is not the time to let our guard down or to fall for the misinformation which is still high prevalent in our communities.
Jones believes there is every reason to expect continued disproportionate impact on the African American community in 2022. “African Americans need to stop invoking Tuskegee as an explanation for not getting vaccinated. Tuskegee was horrendous because of refusal to treat even when a good treatment was available. We know that the vaccines work at least against all COVID variants up to Omicron, and they may also be effective against Omicron. We also have administered these vaccines to hundreds of millions of people. There is no justification for ‘waiting and seeing’ at this point, given that the COVID variants are becoming increasingly infectious, associated with severe disease in some individuals, and with long COVID symptoms in at least 10-30% of survivors.”
Nunez-Smith says 2022 will be a time to focus on children. “Everybody in this country 5 years old and older is eligible for vaccination. That’s 95 percent of the country, and when you look at children under 12 in this country, most of them are children of color and so we’ve got to do that more. I’m thrilled as a parent, my 12-year-old has been vaccinated since the summer when that age group became eligible and my two 8-year-olds are now vaccinated too. We have to do that over and over again.”
She believes the Black community has really stepped up in a big way, that national polls show an uptick in vaccination rates in adults resulting in no difference in the country by race/ethnicity. She says it’s going to be crucial that we lean into testing in the new year.
“We have to go out there and get tested so that we can have access to those treatments that work and work early on in the course of illness,” she stressed. “If you’re sitting here and you’re saying, how do I get ready for the new year, if you haven’t been vaccinated yet then you definitely need to go out and get that primary series.
She continued, “If you’ve been vaccinated and you’ve completed your primary series six months or more ago, you are eligible for a booster and you should go out and get boosted. That’s your best insurance card against Omicron and other variants.”
Will the two Covid-19 variants _ Delta and Omicron_ threaten to upend everything and leave the forecast going into 2022 somewhat up in the air? When it comes to the Omicron variant, the White House and federal health officials are saying, be concerned, but don’t panic.
The CDC says the Delta strain is responsible for more than 99 percent of all cases. But Omicron, a variant that may spread more easily than other variants, is picking up speed in the United States just in time for Christmas, with cases now found in at least 19 states.
Marcella Nunez-Smith, MD, the Presidential COVID-19 Health Equity Task Force Chair, says the Task Force issued its final report and recommendations in November. A total of 55 final recommendations and several top line priorities were laid out. She says they are already moving on about 80 percent of those recommendations.
Nunez-Smith, associate dean for Health Equity Research at Yale University and senior advisor to the White House COVID-19 Response Team says she is resisting the urge to “look into that proverbial crystal ball” but is optimistic about 2022 and encouraged by what she sees.
“We have tools that we just did not have at the beginning of the pandemic. Then even once we got them, they weren’t widely available the way they are now, vaccines being the most important among them.” She added that “both the level of efficacy in the clinical trials and effectiveness in the real world, meaning how well they work at keeping people out of the hospital and alive have been reassuringly high and knowing that boosters give people an extra immune response capability – this is so important.”
“And then we see the range of therapies and the kind of therapies are really expanding with more therapies coming on board. I will always say therapy is not a substitute for a vaccination, but goodness, it’s good to have those things in the toolbox too, just as testing becomes more and more available.”
“We know how to be,” she continued. “Let’s go back to basics, masks. And masks work. Avoiding large crowds and being socially distant when it’s appropriate with those outside our household and outside our pods. That is a list that we didn’t have going into the beginning of this, so even going into 2022, as I know there are questions and answers emerging about Omicron and other variants, we know what to do to stay safe in the face of SAR-CoV-2 and the face of COVID19 and that makes me really optimistic.”
Vice Admiral Vivek Murthy, MD, Surgeon General of the United States weighed in on what we need to do to protect ourselves.
It’s important to remember that since 2020, we have made extraordinary strides in the fight against COVID, including access to a wide array of tools: masks, testing, vaccines for all Americans ages 5 and up, and now, booster shots for all adults. While we do not have a crystal ball we are equipped with these tools and there is reason to feel hopeful about what lies ahead of us. Especially as we continue to take these precautions heading into the winter months.”
The forecast could be a bit tricky without all the pieces of the puzzle, said Georges Benjamin, MD, executive director of the American Public Health Association (APHA). Still, he had this prediction:
“The pandemic trajectory is tied to the level of vaccination including boosters in the nation. So, the most likely scenario is that we should continue to have COVID-19 outbreaks in the US at some level through 2022 with episodic outbreaks at diminishing levels over the year. This assumes people continue to get vaccinated and those that are fully vaccinated today get boosted. It also assumes we are more successful in getting the rest of the world vaccinated at a faster pace AND we don’t get a new variant that substantially escapes the vaccine and is more severe medically. Expect another Xmas / New Year’s surge. Best that can be assumed without a crystal ball.”
Nunez-Smith says the Administration is watching Omicron very, very closely. “I want to reassure everyone that this is still SARS-CoV-2. That is the virus that causes COVID19, this isn’t something that has morphed into something unrecognizable to us. This is a variant – so we will pay attention to this, but it transmits the same way. There is evidence that it can be highly transmissible but the mode of transmission is the same way we’ve always known.
Benjamin says it’s too early to tell if Omicron is a game-changer going into the new year. “The impact of Omicron depends on its infectivity AND its lethality. We should have a better idea in about three weeks. Also, if we get a higher percentage of people vaccinated and boosted, we should undermine the ability of Omicron to get a meaningful foothold in the US. By the way, it could easily end up being no big deal as have other variants that we were initially concerned about.”
“I understand Americans are feeling worried and exhausted with this virus, especially with news of the Omicron variant.” the Surgeon General said. “It’s crucial that we remember we’re in a much better place as a country today than we were in 2020. We have the tools to protect ourselves and our families, keep our kids in school, and gather more safely for birthdays and holidays. The best way to prepare for COVID in 2022 is to use these tools: wearing high-quality masks, getting vaccinated, getting boosted if you’re eligible and using rapid testing as a strategy for gatherings.
Camille Jones, MD, MPH, Assistant Health Commissioner (Retired) Cincinnati Health Department predicts “three to four surges of new COVID diagnoses nationally in 2022. The current surge that started in mid-November 2021 will probably run through February 2022, driven mostly by the Delta variant. Omicron will start spreading extensively in the US, with Omicron driven surges March-May, it will decrease by June, but then another resurgence like we had this year from mid-July – September. If the vaccines hold against Omicron, new COVID diagnoses may start decreasing during fall until another seasonal November-December surge.”
“ But if Omicron is able to evade vaccine neutralizing antibodies, we will have higher surges with more disruption of the medical care system, similar to 2020 before vaccines were available. We will also see other variants arise, and either compete successfully with Delta and Omicron, or not be able to get a foothold in the population.”
The CDC says breakthrough infections in those who are vaccinated are expected but says vaccines are still effective at preventing severe illness, hospitalizations, and death. They’re urging every eligible American to get vaccinated.
“We are going to have to learn to live with this disease around just like we learned to live with Influenza which is also a vaccine preventable respiratory disease. It is too early to know if we will need periodic (annual) boosters, but additional ones are possibly in our future. Also, mask wearing in appropriate settings will continue as well as hand hygiene and some degree of social distancing / closures when outbreaks occur,” Georges said. “I am still very worried about disparities especially with boosters. We need to ensure that we have equal access and utilization of boosters otherwise we will see the health complications from COVID in communities of color worsen. So, 2022 is not the time to let our guard down or to fall for the misinformation which is still high prevalent in our communities.”
“I am still very worried about disparities especially with boosters. We need to ensure that we have equal access and utilization of boosters otherwise we will see the health complications from COVID in communities of color worsen. So, 2022 is not the time to let our guard down or to fall for the misinformation which is still high prevalent in our communities.
Jones believes there is every reason to expect continued disproportionate impact on the African American community in 2022. “African Americans need to stop invoking Tuskegee as an explanation for not getting vaccinated. Tuskegee was horrendous because of refusal to treat even when a good treatment was available. We know that the vaccines work at least against all COVID variants up to Omicron, and they may also be effective against Omicron. We also have administered these vaccines to hundreds of millions of people. There is no justification for ‘waiting and seeing’ at this point, given that the COVID variants are becoming increasingly infectious, associated with severe disease in some individuals, and with long COVID symptoms in at least 10-30% of survivors.”
Nunez-Smith says 2022 will be a time to focus on children. “Everybody in this country 5 years old and older is eligible for vaccination. That’s 95 percent of the country, and when you look at children under 12 in this country, most of them are children of color and so we’ve got to do that more. I’m thrilled as a parent, my 12-year-old has been vaccinated since the summer when that age group became eligible and my two 8-year-olds are now vaccinated too. We have to do that over and over again.”
She believes the Black community has really stepped up in a big way, that national polls show an uptick in vaccination rates in adults resulting in no difference in the country by race/ethnicity. She says it’s going to be crucial that we lean into testing in the new year.
“We have to go out there and get tested so that we can have access to those treatments that work and work early on in the course of illness,” she stressed. “If you’re sitting here and you’re saying, how do I get ready for the new year, if you haven’t been vaccinated yet then you definitely need to go out and get that primary series.
She continued, “If you’ve been vaccinated and you’ve completed your primary series six months or more ago, you are eligible for a booster and you should go out and get boosted. That’s your best insurance card against Omicron and other variants.”